Feeling The Draft: An In-Depth Look at Picks 1 - 7
Now that the all star games and combine have been completed and free agency is in full swing, it's time to start getting serious about the NFL Draft. Interest in these parts is high with the Patriots holding the #7 overall pick. As we turn our attention to the draft, we will focus mainly on what the Patriots may do with the pick and our rationale as to why they would make that choice. While it's nearly impossible to predict the inner workings of the Patriots organization and to anticiapte the thought process behind the moves, we will do our best to offer some insight, as always.
The 2008 NFL Draft is shaping up to be one of the more interesting drafts in recent memory. It is widely regarded as a relatively deep draft but seems to lack a clear-cut crop of upper echelon talent. Over the next several weeks you are going to hear a lot about value; due to the fact that most teams selecting in the top ten are locked into huge guaranteed contracts with players already on their respective rosters, talent is far from the only consideration they'll take into account when deciding who to draft. Teams will be looking into every aspect of each prospect including background, intelligence, football IQ, medical history and so forth. They'll interview the kids' parents and siblings if possible. They will talk to every coach, teacher and neighbor that players they're interested in has ever had in an attempt to ensure that nothing is left to chance. In spite of all the homework teams do, it's a safe bet that five of the top ten selections will miss the mark, as it seems truly impossible to perfectly calculate a player's worth at the highest level. Simply put, it's an imperfect science at best.
With all this in mind, let's look at a mock draft of the top seven picks and see what we think it may look like come April. As always, we welcome any feedback you may have and even encourage you to submit your own "Top 7."
1. Miami - The Dolphins would love to trade out of this spot and obtain extra picks and save some guaranteed dollars. However, that is unlikely to happen in this draft. Without a clear choice on the board as the #1 overall pick, I can't see anyone trading up to acquire this pick. Therefore, I see the Dolphins looking at three players in the end: Chris Long, DE from Virginia and Howie's son (how's that for a football pedigree?); Matt Ryan, QB from Boston College and the surprise candidate for the 'Fins; and Sedrick Ellis, DT from USC. While Ryan is the best of this years' QB class, he is by no means a sure thing and doesn't seem to merit the #1 overall pick. Ellis is intriguing as he is capable of anchoring the middle of the D-line as a pure nose tackle - the key to the 3-4 alignment. Ultimately, I see them taking the safest and surest pick in the draft, Chris Long. While he may not ever be a superstar, you can pencil him in as a starter for the next 10 plus years.
Prediction: Chris Long
2. St. Louis - The Rams offensive line was decimated by injuries last year and they paid the price with reduced production out of Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. That being the case, I see the Rams looking at two players in this draft: Jake Long, OT from Michigan who blew most of the field away in terms of measurables and a surprise pick, and DE Vernon Gholston from Ohio State. While Gholston produced throughout his career at OSU, his measurables at the combine were off the charts. As the Giants proved in the SuperBowl, pressure on the quarterback can close the gap for a less talented team. There are concerns that Long's footwork is a bit slow to play LT in the pro's, but in the end I think he wins out and is the #2 pick.
Prediction: Jake Long
3. Atlanta - What didn't go wrong for the Falcons last year? With the recent signing of Michael Turner, I think that ends the Darren McFadden debate and pushes them closer towards Matt Ryan. While a prospect such as Glenn Dorsey could be intriguing here, Atlanta is a team with as much of an image problem as a talent problem. Ryan really impressed scouts and GM's with his professionalism at the combine (unlike Colt Brennan, who most analysts say came off sounding like a jackass), reminding many of Peyton Manning, and that should be enough to make him the pick here.
Prediction: Matt Ryan
4. Oakland - This is where the draft gets interesting. Of course, when Al Davis is involved, things are always interesting (as evidenced by the Raiders' six year, $55 million deal with injury-plagued Javon Walker). There are still rumors circulating out of Oakland that head coach Lane Kiffin isn't allowed to be in draft meetings nor have access to scouting reports... sounds like things are back to normal on the other side of the bay. I see them looking at three players in this spot: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU; Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC; Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. With the retirement of Warren Sapp, it would make sense to sure up the D-line with one of these top tackles. But this is Oakland we're talking about, the franchise where typically nothing makes sense. I see them being enamored with the idea of pairing McFadden with last year's top pick Jamarcus Russell. Throw in the fact that McFadden currently has two pending paternity suits and this pick seems like a lock.
Prediction: Darren McFadden
5. Kansas City - The Chiefs are a team with a ton of holes. They have questions at QB, OL, DL... and pretty much every other position you can think of. While the highest value on the board is at DT/DE with Ellis, Dorsey and Gholston still remaining, I foresee the first "reach" pick of the draft coming here. KC's offensive line was amongst the worst in the league last year and while there are better value picks on defense, I see them reaching for an OT at this spot. They will look at Boise State OT Ryan Clady, Pitt's Jeff Otah and Vanderbilt's Chris Williams. In the end, I see them going with Clady, who has the most impressive measurables and is widely considered the second best tackle in the draft.
Prediction: Ryan Clady
6. NY Jets - I foresee this pick being as much about trying to predict what the Patriots want to do with the pick just behind the Jets as looking to fill a hole on the team. I don't think there is any doubt that the Jets go defense here. Over the past couple days, they have acquired Kris Jenkins from Carolina to anchor the line while attempts to jettison Dwayne Robertson to the Bengals have stalled. In this spot, NY will look at Dorsey, Ellis and Gholston. With reports out of NY suggesting that the Jets will try Jenkins at the nose, I am leaning towards the pass rusher in Gholston at this point.
Prediction: Vernon Gholston
7. New England - The Patriots had the most disappointing 18-1 season in the history of the NFL, but they are still one of the elite teams in the league and will be amongst the favorites to go to the Super Bowl next season. In last year's draft, they were able to fleece SF into dealing the 28th pick in a weak draft for a first rounder this year, once again highlighting the desperation teams feel to win right away and how the better organizations are continuously able to take advantage of the lesser ones. There is no doubt in my mind that the Patriots would love to trade down here, save the money and secure extra picks for the future. However, seeing as there hasn't been a trade into the top seven in five years, odds are the Pats will be picking here. There have been a lot of reports lately of the need to get younger at LB or to replace Asante Samuel and add depth to the CB position. My feeling is that when picking in the top 10 you go for value over need. I don't see a LB worthy of a top 10 pick in this draft and to suggest any of the corners are top 10 players sounds like a stretch. You must remember, the organization assigns value to positions as well as players; as such, no position is valued higher than defensive line. If they wanted to pay $20 million in guaranteed money, I think they would have held on to Samuel. I think this pick comes down to one of two players: Glenn Dorsey of LSU or Sedrick Ellis of USC. In the end, medical concerns about Dorsey and the fact that Ellis is better suited for the 3-4 scheme makes the choice a bit easier.
Prediction: Sedrick Ellis
Over the next several weeks we will explore the different scenarios that could unfold and affect the direction the Patriots take in the 2008 NFL Draft. Stay tuned for all our draft coverage, and if there's anything specific you'd like to see, let us know.
The 2008 NFL Draft is shaping up to be one of the more interesting drafts in recent memory. It is widely regarded as a relatively deep draft but seems to lack a clear-cut crop of upper echelon talent. Over the next several weeks you are going to hear a lot about value; due to the fact that most teams selecting in the top ten are locked into huge guaranteed contracts with players already on their respective rosters, talent is far from the only consideration they'll take into account when deciding who to draft. Teams will be looking into every aspect of each prospect including background, intelligence, football IQ, medical history and so forth. They'll interview the kids' parents and siblings if possible. They will talk to every coach, teacher and neighbor that players they're interested in has ever had in an attempt to ensure that nothing is left to chance. In spite of all the homework teams do, it's a safe bet that five of the top ten selections will miss the mark, as it seems truly impossible to perfectly calculate a player's worth at the highest level. Simply put, it's an imperfect science at best.
With all this in mind, let's look at a mock draft of the top seven picks and see what we think it may look like come April. As always, we welcome any feedback you may have and even encourage you to submit your own "Top 7."
1. Miami - The Dolphins would love to trade out of this spot and obtain extra picks and save some guaranteed dollars. However, that is unlikely to happen in this draft. Without a clear choice on the board as the #1 overall pick, I can't see anyone trading up to acquire this pick. Therefore, I see the Dolphins looking at three players in the end: Chris Long, DE from Virginia and Howie's son (how's that for a football pedigree?); Matt Ryan, QB from Boston College and the surprise candidate for the 'Fins; and Sedrick Ellis, DT from USC. While Ryan is the best of this years' QB class, he is by no means a sure thing and doesn't seem to merit the #1 overall pick. Ellis is intriguing as he is capable of anchoring the middle of the D-line as a pure nose tackle - the key to the 3-4 alignment. Ultimately, I see them taking the safest and surest pick in the draft, Chris Long. While he may not ever be a superstar, you can pencil him in as a starter for the next 10 plus years.
Prediction: Chris Long
2. St. Louis - The Rams offensive line was decimated by injuries last year and they paid the price with reduced production out of Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. That being the case, I see the Rams looking at two players in this draft: Jake Long, OT from Michigan who blew most of the field away in terms of measurables and a surprise pick, and DE Vernon Gholston from Ohio State. While Gholston produced throughout his career at OSU, his measurables at the combine were off the charts. As the Giants proved in the SuperBowl, pressure on the quarterback can close the gap for a less talented team. There are concerns that Long's footwork is a bit slow to play LT in the pro's, but in the end I think he wins out and is the #2 pick.
Prediction: Jake Long
3. Atlanta - What didn't go wrong for the Falcons last year? With the recent signing of Michael Turner, I think that ends the Darren McFadden debate and pushes them closer towards Matt Ryan. While a prospect such as Glenn Dorsey could be intriguing here, Atlanta is a team with as much of an image problem as a talent problem. Ryan really impressed scouts and GM's with his professionalism at the combine (unlike Colt Brennan, who most analysts say came off sounding like a jackass), reminding many of Peyton Manning, and that should be enough to make him the pick here.
Prediction: Matt Ryan
4. Oakland - This is where the draft gets interesting. Of course, when Al Davis is involved, things are always interesting (as evidenced by the Raiders' six year, $55 million deal with injury-plagued Javon Walker). There are still rumors circulating out of Oakland that head coach Lane Kiffin isn't allowed to be in draft meetings nor have access to scouting reports... sounds like things are back to normal on the other side of the bay. I see them looking at three players in this spot: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU; Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC; Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas. With the retirement of Warren Sapp, it would make sense to sure up the D-line with one of these top tackles. But this is Oakland we're talking about, the franchise where typically nothing makes sense. I see them being enamored with the idea of pairing McFadden with last year's top pick Jamarcus Russell. Throw in the fact that McFadden currently has two pending paternity suits and this pick seems like a lock.
Prediction: Darren McFadden
5. Kansas City - The Chiefs are a team with a ton of holes. They have questions at QB, OL, DL... and pretty much every other position you can think of. While the highest value on the board is at DT/DE with Ellis, Dorsey and Gholston still remaining, I foresee the first "reach" pick of the draft coming here. KC's offensive line was amongst the worst in the league last year and while there are better value picks on defense, I see them reaching for an OT at this spot. They will look at Boise State OT Ryan Clady, Pitt's Jeff Otah and Vanderbilt's Chris Williams. In the end, I see them going with Clady, who has the most impressive measurables and is widely considered the second best tackle in the draft.
Prediction: Ryan Clady
6. NY Jets - I foresee this pick being as much about trying to predict what the Patriots want to do with the pick just behind the Jets as looking to fill a hole on the team. I don't think there is any doubt that the Jets go defense here. Over the past couple days, they have acquired Kris Jenkins from Carolina to anchor the line while attempts to jettison Dwayne Robertson to the Bengals have stalled. In this spot, NY will look at Dorsey, Ellis and Gholston. With reports out of NY suggesting that the Jets will try Jenkins at the nose, I am leaning towards the pass rusher in Gholston at this point.
Prediction: Vernon Gholston
7. New England - The Patriots had the most disappointing 18-1 season in the history of the NFL, but they are still one of the elite teams in the league and will be amongst the favorites to go to the Super Bowl next season. In last year's draft, they were able to fleece SF into dealing the 28th pick in a weak draft for a first rounder this year, once again highlighting the desperation teams feel to win right away and how the better organizations are continuously able to take advantage of the lesser ones. There is no doubt in my mind that the Patriots would love to trade down here, save the money and secure extra picks for the future. However, seeing as there hasn't been a trade into the top seven in five years, odds are the Pats will be picking here. There have been a lot of reports lately of the need to get younger at LB or to replace Asante Samuel and add depth to the CB position. My feeling is that when picking in the top 10 you go for value over need. I don't see a LB worthy of a top 10 pick in this draft and to suggest any of the corners are top 10 players sounds like a stretch. You must remember, the organization assigns value to positions as well as players; as such, no position is valued higher than defensive line. If they wanted to pay $20 million in guaranteed money, I think they would have held on to Samuel. I think this pick comes down to one of two players: Glenn Dorsey of LSU or Sedrick Ellis of USC. In the end, medical concerns about Dorsey and the fact that Ellis is better suited for the 3-4 scheme makes the choice a bit easier.
Prediction: Sedrick Ellis
Over the next several weeks we will explore the different scenarios that could unfold and affect the direction the Patriots take in the 2008 NFL Draft. Stay tuned for all our draft coverage, and if there's anything specific you'd like to see, let us know.
Comments