Value vs. Need: The Ongoing Draft Debate
While I must confess that I too worship at the temple of Messrs. Kiper, Gosselin and Mayock, the fact remains that even the best in the business rarely approach 50% accuracy in predicting first round selections come draft day. The reasons for this are numerous; scouting reports can vary widely between organizations, coaching philosophy and style of play may be contradictory to a certain player's skill set, and then there are the behind the scenes issues such as contract negotiations with current players at impasse which may lead teams to begin scouting for eventual replacements. And of course, there is always the draft day trade, better known as the "dagger to the heart" of all aspiring mockers.
In my humble opinion, what many analysts neglect to take into consideration is a team's specific philosophy towards the draft and building a team in general. Looking at the Patriots, it's clear that they assess value not only to players on the roster but to positions on the field. Rarely do they deviate from this philosophy except in the rarest of cases (Hello Randy Moss!). This way of doing business has seen them let the likes of Asante Samuel, Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Donte Stallworth, Damien Woody, Adam Vinateri and so forth move on to bigger deals in other cities. Clearly, the Patriots stick to their guns when assigning dollar amounts.
That is why I find it somewhat humorous each year to look at the endless string of mock drafts predicting the Patriots to address need over value in the draft. This is the fatal flaw that most amateur and professional analysts alike share when looking at the Patriots in the draft. They see need where the Patriots always look for value. While I won't sit here and tell you I know who the Patriots will take at seven, I feel confident based on the front office's drafting history that it won't be a running back, wide receiver, guard, or safety. These positions simply don't hold up to the value chart in Foxboro.
If history is any type of indicator, look for the Patriots to address the defensive line in some capacity, whether it be a DT or a DE/OLB hybrid type of player (I predicted Ellis in my first mock draft). While the league is full of running backs, wide receivers, linebackers, and even quarterbacks (ever hear of that Tom Brady guy?) who have made it big after being a late round selection, it would be a struggle to find very many dominant defensive lineman taken after the first round.
While it may not seem like the biggest need on the team at this point (especially with the much-publicized vacancies at linebacker and cornerback), keep two very important factors in mind: first, there is no position in football the coach holds in higher regard than the D-line; and second, all contracts for the Patriots' men upfront come due in 2009.
In my humble opinion, what many analysts neglect to take into consideration is a team's specific philosophy towards the draft and building a team in general. Looking at the Patriots, it's clear that they assess value not only to players on the roster but to positions on the field. Rarely do they deviate from this philosophy except in the rarest of cases (Hello Randy Moss!). This way of doing business has seen them let the likes of Asante Samuel, Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Donte Stallworth, Damien Woody, Adam Vinateri and so forth move on to bigger deals in other cities. Clearly, the Patriots stick to their guns when assigning dollar amounts.
That is why I find it somewhat humorous each year to look at the endless string of mock drafts predicting the Patriots to address need over value in the draft. This is the fatal flaw that most amateur and professional analysts alike share when looking at the Patriots in the draft. They see need where the Patriots always look for value. While I won't sit here and tell you I know who the Patriots will take at seven, I feel confident based on the front office's drafting history that it won't be a running back, wide receiver, guard, or safety. These positions simply don't hold up to the value chart in Foxboro.
If history is any type of indicator, look for the Patriots to address the defensive line in some capacity, whether it be a DT or a DE/OLB hybrid type of player (I predicted Ellis in my first mock draft). While the league is full of running backs, wide receivers, linebackers, and even quarterbacks (ever hear of that Tom Brady guy?) who have made it big after being a late round selection, it would be a struggle to find very many dominant defensive lineman taken after the first round.
While it may not seem like the biggest need on the team at this point (especially with the much-publicized vacancies at linebacker and cornerback), keep two very important factors in mind: first, there is no position in football the coach holds in higher regard than the D-line; and second, all contracts for the Patriots' men upfront come due in 2009.
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