Individual Projections for the 2008 Red Sox - Offense
Our buddy Bill James (about whom BSB contributor The Ignorant Bostonian just wrote an excellent piece... just a few posts down, check it out) has released his latest Handbook and Boston.com features a section on the 2008 Boston Red Sox. Let's take a look at what Sir James projects for the position players this season (I'll take a look at the pitchers a little later, so stay tuned)...
Jason Varitek, C - .253, 17 HR, 70 RBI, 60 R
Kevin Youkilis, 1B - .290, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 89 R
Dustin Pedroia, 2B - .300, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 77 R
Mike Lowell, 3B- .282, 17 HR, 81 RBI, 64 R
Julio Lugo, SS - .266, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 76 R, 26 SB
Manny Ramirez, LF - .301, 33 HR, 113 RBI, 93 R
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF - .329, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 70 R, 38 SB
J.D. Drew, RF - .278, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 90 R
David Ortiz, DH - .298, 41 HR, 130 RBI, 109 R
Like I said, I'll take a look at the pitchers tomorrow, but as a little preview, James doesn't have any Sox pitcher winning more than 14 games... wow, looks like I'll have a bit more to nitpick tomorrow. As usual, we welcome your thoughts and comments on our opinions here; don't hold back, we can take the criticism.
Jason Varitek, C - .253, 17 HR, 70 RBI, 60 R
Solid power numbers from the captain and an acceptable average, as usual... seems about right. Tek's real value comes in his superior handling of the pitching staff and his leadership in the clubhouse, so anything he does above the norm offensively is just a bonus.
Kevin Youkilis, 1B - .290, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 89 R
The drama king improves in every offensive category across the board besides HR (1 less than last season's 16) and RBI (5 less than last year's 83)... good enough for me. Could have more runs if he hits in the 2 hole, which of course depends on the centerfield situation.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B - .300, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 77 R
Like the .300 BA, but I think Dusty's going to finish with more than 77 runs, especially if he's in the 2 hole (which, like with Youk, depends on who's atop the order... it very well may be Dusty himself at some point, as we saw last season). He could crack double digits in homers, too.
Mike Lowell, 3B- .282, 17 HR, 81 RBI, 64 R
I agree that a slight regression from Lowell's .324-21-120 line from last season is likely, but I still think Mill City will flirt with 100 RBI, if not surpass it, in the 5 or 6 spot of that lineup. I also think Mikey will have a good deal more than 64 runs... at least 70 (79 last season).
Julio Lugo, SS - .266, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 76 R, 26 SB
Not exactly what we thought we were getting when the Sox signed Lugo prior to least season, but decent enough production from the 9 spot... also, 30 steals is a possibility. He might not have as many as 76 runs if he's stuck at the back end of the order all season, though.
Manny Ramirez, LF - .301, 33 HR, 113 RBI, 93 R
Another good, consistent year from Manny, but unlike James, I don't think 40 homers is out of the question. All depends on how many games he plays, and his motivation and conditioning point to more games played than the last couple of seasons when he appeared in 130 and 133 games in 2006 and 2007, respectively.
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF - .329, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 70 R, 38 SB
I assume the numbers reflect Jacoby being in the starting role... if he can live up to this projection, I certainly hope that's the case come opening day. If he's in the starting lineup for 120+ games, he'll score more runs as the everyday leadoff man, and while he's not widely regards as a power threat, he did have 3 HR in 116 AB last season, so more than 6 homers is definitely a possibility.
Coco Crisp, CF - .279, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 62 R, 19 SB
James gives projections for both CFs assuming they'll both have starting roles with the Sox (which, of course, is impossible, but necessary for such projections). Coco will likely be traded and I'm sure some team (Cubs and Padres among them, as well as the Reds, Pirates, White Sox and Rangers according to MLB Trade Rumors) could use his double-digit HR and SB potential atop their lineups.
J.D. Drew, RF - .278, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 90 R
Nice improvement for J.D. in the power department, but he still isn't projected to live up to the average and RBI total we thought we'd see from him. His OBP will still likely be .380 plus, though, and that's nothing to sneeze at. 90 runs looks a little high, too (he had 84 last season).
David Ortiz, DH - .298, 41 HR, 130 RBI, 109 R
An improved season for Ortiz after a knee injury last season (and subsequent surgery in the offseason) kept him relatively in check in the power department. The average should be a little higher this year, though, as Ortiz finished 2007 with a career high .332 BA.
Like I said, I'll take a look at the pitchers tomorrow, but as a little preview, James doesn't have any Sox pitcher winning more than 14 games... wow, looks like I'll have a bit more to nitpick tomorrow. As usual, we welcome your thoughts and comments on our opinions here; don't hold back, we can take the criticism.
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