Quite a downgrade from last year's Cy Young worthy 20 win campaign.  Everyone balks about the 5.01 ERA from 2006 and the history of chronic blister problems, but prior to this back injury Backs had really seemed to turn the page... I mean, the guy's started 30, 33 and 29 games over the past 3 seasons!  Depending on how much time he misses, another 20 wins isn't out of the question for Josh, but he'll most likely settle in the 16-18 win mark in my opinion (with that run support - 6.42 runs per 9 innings according to baseball-reference.com - he could pitch with his left hand and still get a dozen wins).

Really like the look of that 3.54 ERA and 8 loss mark (compared to last year's 12) but I can't say that I agree.  Dice-K's sophomore campaign really could go either way with him either largely improving after adjusting to the MLB and life in the good old US and A (yep, that's a Borat reference) or struggling mightily because AL hitters have figured him out.  James sees a regression in Ks (201 last year) but a huge improvement in ERA and BB (4.40 and 80 last year, respectively)... I tend to think he'll have an ERA in the upper threes with 200+ Ks; also, he should crack the 15 win mark, as he had exactly that number last season.

How Wake has managed to keep his walk rate at an average of 67 BB per season while relying on such an erratic pitch is beyond me.  Wake is perhaps the most difficult starter to predict due to the fact that the knuckleball is a very fickle pitch; one night it could be jumping and cause even the best hitters to register 4 strikeouts in a game, and the next it could be flat and flying out of the park.  He's not likely to duplicate the 17 wins from last year, but honestly, who really knows how it'll turn out?  It should be noted that at least in recent memory, Wake hasn't been put in the position of having to be the third starter, which carries with it substantial expectations... in the end, I think he'll have a higher ERA (4.76 last year) and maybe another win or two. 

Lester's another guy who's difficult to predict because he doesn't have much of a track record just yet.  Reports from the Fort have Lester packing an extra 20 pounds of muscle, which should significantly add to his velocity (Gammons says Lester's fastball is consistently in the mid-90s).  He's said to be commanding all of his pitches well, especially the curve, and he still hasn't unleashed the cutter he's been working on.  If all that's true, 175 innings is a definite possibility and the 89 walks would appear a bit on the high side.  10+ wins, 150 Ks and a mid-four ERA is excellent production out of your fourth rotation spot.

Once again, it's tough to predict the production we can expect out of the fifth rotation spot because we don't know who the Sox will pencil in there... I believe it'll be a split of Colon and Buchholz for much of the season, possibly ending with Schilling claiming the role if he's able to come back after the All-Star break (have to get something for the $8 million they're paying him, right?).  Colon could start a handful of games or he could be a season-long starter... for now, we'll let James' predictions do the talking because we just can't speculate on the 5 spot just yet.

Curt's a long shot to pitch at all this season, let alone recording 62 innings.  Not sure why Boston.com doesn't have James' projection for Clay, but I'll add his PECOTA projection because there's virtually a 100% probability we'll see him start some games this season.

Timlin's not getting any younger but he's still one of the most effective guys the Sox have in the bullpen.  I truly believe this could be the year that Manny Delcarmen supplants Tim-Tim as the Sox's top right handed setup man... at the very least, he should get a few save opportunities when Papelbon needs a night off.  Okajima is likely to regress a bit, as evidenced by an ERA that's almost a full run higher than last year's, as AL hitters have had more time to figure him out.  Maybe that deceptive delivery will continue to cause hitters trouble, though, and he can post an ERA in the low twos again.  Either way, I feel pretty comfortable with these three guys combining for 7th and 8th inning duties.

With a pitching staff that will likely have the Sox in many 1 to 3 run games, Paps should eclipse the 40 save mark for the first time in his career.  Although his ERA has increased in his first two years as the Sox's closer (0.92 in 2006 to 1.85 in 2007), I still think he will maintain a sub two to low twos ERA.  The Sox would probably like to keep Paps around 60 innings as he experienced some shoulder and arm problems at the tail end of the 2006 season (when he pitched just shy of 70 innings), but he may be called on to shoulder a bit more of the load - no pun intended - if the Sox are in a lot of close games.