Celtics vs. Cavaliers Second Round Playoff Preview
Breaking Down the Numbers:
The Celtics averaged 100.5 points per game and allowed 90.3 during the regular season; the Cavaliers scored 96.4 and allowed 96.7. Postseason - The C's check in with 99.1 scored and 87.1 allowed, while the Cavs score 95.5 and allow 92.2. In 4 regular season matchups, each team came away with two wins; Boston's two victories came on 10 and 5 point differentials, while the Cavs' two wins were a lot closer as they stole one in OT (thanks to two missed free throws by Ray Allen in a late tie) and won the other by a single point. Average score of those 4 games - 97.3 to 94.8 in favor of the good guys. However, it should be noted that the Celts' 80-70 December 2nd victory was against a LeBron James-less Cavaliers team.
Matchups:
PG: Rajon Rondo vs. Delonte West (Advantage: Boston)
SG: Ray Allen vs. Wally Szczerbiak (Advantage: Boston)
SF: Paul Pierce vs. LeBron James (Advantage: Cleveland)
PF: Kevin Garnett vs. Ben Wallace (Advantage: Boston)
C: Kendrick Perkins vs. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Advantage: Cleveland)
Bench: Powe/Posey/Cassell/Brown vs. Gibson/Smith/Verejao/Brown (Advantage: Boston)
I bet Danny Ainge and the Celtics front office didn't think these preseason trade subjects would come back to face them in the playoffs. The Rondo/West duel will be an interesting one to watch and should be a lot closer than some people assume. Rondo's postseason numbers are a bit better, but Delonte has shown an ability to hit the pivotal late shot in their opening series with the Washington Wizards. Plus, LeBron is starting to trust the new playmakers that currently surround him. Wally will need to hit outside shots with LeBron clearing the way for the Cavs' recent additions by drawing double teams and penetrating almost at will, but Ray Allen clearly has the edge in terms of overall skill and ability. Wallace has been an offensive disappointment for the Cavs since Day 1 and his sub-par play has carried over into the postseason. Meanwhile, Kevin Garnett has ratcheted up the intensity level and is averaging 21 points and 8.9 rebounds per game in the postseason. Big Ben is still a solid defender and could cause some problems for KG, who's no slouch on defense, himself. Perk is outmatched by the 7-4 Ilgauskas, who's under 1 rebound shy of averaging a double-double per game in the playoffs (14.1 points and 9.3 rebounds). The Celts don't really have an answer for Ilgauskas, whose size will cause Perk a great deal of trouble on both ends of the floor as he's not able to back down or box out bigger centers, so it will be interesting to see what Doc comes up with to keep Big Z in check. The benches are closer than you'd probably think, but the Celts' greatest strength all season (roster depth) will continue to be their greatest strength in this series. The key matchup in this series is Pierce vs. James. You know James' storyline by now: youngest player to reach 10,000 points, record a triple-double, be named Rookie of the Year, etc., poster boy and recipient of staggering endorsement deals from several huge companies like Nike and Gatorade, heir apparent to the Michael Jordan legend... Simply put, the guy's crazy good. Pierce, on the other hand, has played in relative obscurity his entire career (at least as much obscurity as a player who has averaged 23.1 points over his career can play in) because he's always been on crappy to decent Celtics teams. Yeah, they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001-02, but we all know how that turned out. Pierce struggled a bit against the Cavs during their four regular season matchups and he needs to be able to guard James one-on-one a decent amount of the time. Expect to see the C's employ the double team (and the occasional triple team) against King James quite a bit, especially with an offensive non-factor like Ben Wallace sharing the floor with him, but if they double team James too much, guys like Wally and West will be able to shoot at will. Whether or not they score on all those free shots remains to be seen, but both of those guys can heat up very easily, so I'd prefer we don't try to find out.
Prediction:
My confidence is a little shaken as a result of the Hawks forcing the C's to 7 games, but I don't think they'll have the same problems on the road this series. Doc's not the best tactician out there, but he knows what to say in every situation and how to get his guys motivated, so I think he'll be able to correct the flaws they demonstrated, particularly on defense, away from the TD Banknorth Garden and they'll keep this thing under 7 games. James will score his 30 to 40 points per game and finish with superb individual stats in all likelihood, but the big key here is forcing LeBron to make a ton of shots to get to those 30 to 40 points. Ultimately, "The New Big Three" will be too much for "The Chosen One" to handle. Celtics in 6.
The Celtics averaged 100.5 points per game and allowed 90.3 during the regular season; the Cavaliers scored 96.4 and allowed 96.7. Postseason - The C's check in with 99.1 scored and 87.1 allowed, while the Cavs score 95.5 and allow 92.2. In 4 regular season matchups, each team came away with two wins; Boston's two victories came on 10 and 5 point differentials, while the Cavs' two wins were a lot closer as they stole one in OT (thanks to two missed free throws by Ray Allen in a late tie) and won the other by a single point. Average score of those 4 games - 97.3 to 94.8 in favor of the good guys. However, it should be noted that the Celts' 80-70 December 2nd victory was against a LeBron James-less Cavaliers team.
Matchups:
PG: Rajon Rondo vs. Delonte West (Advantage: Boston)
SG: Ray Allen vs. Wally Szczerbiak (Advantage: Boston)
SF: Paul Pierce vs. LeBron James (Advantage: Cleveland)
PF: Kevin Garnett vs. Ben Wallace (Advantage: Boston)
C: Kendrick Perkins vs. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Advantage: Cleveland)
Bench: Powe/Posey/Cassell/Brown vs. Gibson/Smith/Verejao/Brown (Advantage: Boston)
I bet Danny Ainge and the Celtics front office didn't think these preseason trade subjects would come back to face them in the playoffs. The Rondo/West duel will be an interesting one to watch and should be a lot closer than some people assume. Rondo's postseason numbers are a bit better, but Delonte has shown an ability to hit the pivotal late shot in their opening series with the Washington Wizards. Plus, LeBron is starting to trust the new playmakers that currently surround him. Wally will need to hit outside shots with LeBron clearing the way for the Cavs' recent additions by drawing double teams and penetrating almost at will, but Ray Allen clearly has the edge in terms of overall skill and ability. Wallace has been an offensive disappointment for the Cavs since Day 1 and his sub-par play has carried over into the postseason. Meanwhile, Kevin Garnett has ratcheted up the intensity level and is averaging 21 points and 8.9 rebounds per game in the postseason. Big Ben is still a solid defender and could cause some problems for KG, who's no slouch on defense, himself. Perk is outmatched by the 7-4 Ilgauskas, who's under 1 rebound shy of averaging a double-double per game in the playoffs (14.1 points and 9.3 rebounds). The Celts don't really have an answer for Ilgauskas, whose size will cause Perk a great deal of trouble on both ends of the floor as he's not able to back down or box out bigger centers, so it will be interesting to see what Doc comes up with to keep Big Z in check. The benches are closer than you'd probably think, but the Celts' greatest strength all season (roster depth) will continue to be their greatest strength in this series. The key matchup in this series is Pierce vs. James. You know James' storyline by now: youngest player to reach 10,000 points, record a triple-double, be named Rookie of the Year, etc., poster boy and recipient of staggering endorsement deals from several huge companies like Nike and Gatorade, heir apparent to the Michael Jordan legend... Simply put, the guy's crazy good. Pierce, on the other hand, has played in relative obscurity his entire career (at least as much obscurity as a player who has averaged 23.1 points over his career can play in) because he's always been on crappy to decent Celtics teams. Yeah, they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001-02, but we all know how that turned out. Pierce struggled a bit against the Cavs during their four regular season matchups and he needs to be able to guard James one-on-one a decent amount of the time. Expect to see the C's employ the double team (and the occasional triple team) against King James quite a bit, especially with an offensive non-factor like Ben Wallace sharing the floor with him, but if they double team James too much, guys like Wally and West will be able to shoot at will. Whether or not they score on all those free shots remains to be seen, but both of those guys can heat up very easily, so I'd prefer we don't try to find out.
Prediction:
My confidence is a little shaken as a result of the Hawks forcing the C's to 7 games, but I don't think they'll have the same problems on the road this series. Doc's not the best tactician out there, but he knows what to say in every situation and how to get his guys motivated, so I think he'll be able to correct the flaws they demonstrated, particularly on defense, away from the TD Banknorth Garden and they'll keep this thing under 7 games. James will score his 30 to 40 points per game and finish with superb individual stats in all likelihood, but the big key here is forcing LeBron to make a ton of shots to get to those 30 to 40 points. Ultimately, "The New Big Three" will be too much for "The Chosen One" to handle. Celtics in 6.
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