2008 MLB Draft Preview
The 2008 MLB draft is upon us and will be taking place on Thursday June 5th and Friday June 6th. The draft will be aired live on ESPN 2 from 2-6 on Thursday, which should cover the first round and the first supplemental round. The first day of the draft should cover rounds 1-5 with both supplemental rounds. Lasting 50 round, the baseball draft is the longest compared to any other sport's draft, making the second day extremely long and busy with rounds 6-50. Most people will never have heard of any of the guys drafted, but to help combat this ignorance that most of us are guilty of, we have Baseball America's Top 200 Prospects, Keith Law's Top 75 Prospects (ESPN insider only) and Jonathan Mayo's Draft Reports.
Since the staggering first round success of the 2005 draft that produced Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden, the 2006 and 2007 first rounds have not produced as much talent for the Sox. 2006 first rounder Jason Place is struggling to hit .200 in Lancaster while Daniel Bard, picked one spot later, struggled last year as a starter but may have found his place in the Portland bullpen. Supplemental first round pick Kris Johnson has mediocre numbers in Portland this season, while Caleb Clay, also selected in the supplemental round, had Tommy John surgery last season and may miss this entire season. The 2007 first round has not proved to have any better results; without a first round pick, the Sox had two picks in the supplemental round, which they used to select Nick Hagadone and Ryan Dent. Hagadone is slated to have season ending Tommy John surgery soon and Dent has yet to make his debut this season. So the top picks we have this season need to make a big impact in order to keep the farm system churning out big time prospects.
The Red Sox have picks 30, 45, 77, 85, 108, 142 and 172 in rounds 1-5. I am not here to predict who they will take with these picks because the MLB draft is perhaps the most unpredictable of drafts, but rather to point out some trends you may want to make note of and pay attention to come draft day(s).
1. College Players: Since Theo Epstein and Co. have taken over the Sox, none of their draft picks out of high school have made it to AAA. Michael Bowden may be ready to knock that door to AAA down soon, but even so, the players he has drafted out of high school have been underwhelming or progressing slowly. Expect either pick 30 or 45 to be an advanced college player.
2. Power Arms, Power Bats: The Sox are past the point where they need to draft high floor, low ceiling talent - they can now focus on top arms and guys who have power for their positions, but may need an extra year or so in the minors to iron out the finer points of their game. These players could end up being potential replacements for certain players on the Red Sox right now.
3. Tough Signs: Baseball is the only sport where a guy may slide down the draft boards due to how much money they may command to "buy" them out of a college commitment. Last year, the Red Sox drafted and signed Will Middlebrooks, Anthony Rizzo, David Mailman, Austin Bailey and Drake Britton over slot. Inevitably, some guys they do draft refuse to sign either because they want to get an education or because they think they can go higher in later years, but the money speaks fairly loudly to some draftees. Expect the Sox to continue the trend of shelling out top dollar to some high school players, especially when it comes to the last pick of the first day. In the past two years, the Sox have gone significantly above slot on their last pick of the first day with Will Middlebrooks (5th Round) and Lars Anderson (18th Round).
Finally, there is one player whom the Sox have been linked to for 3 years now: Reese Havens. According to Baseball America's mock draft, Havens would have been drafted over Jacoby Ellsbury with the 23rd pick in 2005 had he been willing to sign for slot money out of high school. Havens is a shortstop currently playing for the University of South Carolina and he really fits the Red Sox mold. He has a good approach at the plate and has some pop for a shortstop while being able to hit for average. Some feel his foot speed will not play at shortstop and he will have to find a new position. Keith Law mentioned in his chat last week that the Sox were keying in on one player and planned to move him to catcher; if Law is referring to Havens, who has the arm to do it, his bat would play up as a catcher. If Havens is still on the board at 30, the Red Sox may take a long, hard look at him, but he hit a walk off home run in the NCAA Regionals, so his stock is on the rise.
Stay tuned for our Sox draft coverage later in the week; on Thursday I will have a report on the players the Red Sox have drafted in the top rounds, and on Friday I will list all drafted players, as well as speculate on the players that may be "tough signs" for the Sox.
Since the staggering first round success of the 2005 draft that produced Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden, the 2006 and 2007 first rounds have not produced as much talent for the Sox. 2006 first rounder Jason Place is struggling to hit .200 in Lancaster while Daniel Bard, picked one spot later, struggled last year as a starter but may have found his place in the Portland bullpen. Supplemental first round pick Kris Johnson has mediocre numbers in Portland this season, while Caleb Clay, also selected in the supplemental round, had Tommy John surgery last season and may miss this entire season. The 2007 first round has not proved to have any better results; without a first round pick, the Sox had two picks in the supplemental round, which they used to select Nick Hagadone and Ryan Dent. Hagadone is slated to have season ending Tommy John surgery soon and Dent has yet to make his debut this season. So the top picks we have this season need to make a big impact in order to keep the farm system churning out big time prospects.
The Red Sox have picks 30, 45, 77, 85, 108, 142 and 172 in rounds 1-5. I am not here to predict who they will take with these picks because the MLB draft is perhaps the most unpredictable of drafts, but rather to point out some trends you may want to make note of and pay attention to come draft day(s).
1. College Players: Since Theo Epstein and Co. have taken over the Sox, none of their draft picks out of high school have made it to AAA. Michael Bowden may be ready to knock that door to AAA down soon, but even so, the players he has drafted out of high school have been underwhelming or progressing slowly. Expect either pick 30 or 45 to be an advanced college player.
2. Power Arms, Power Bats: The Sox are past the point where they need to draft high floor, low ceiling talent - they can now focus on top arms and guys who have power for their positions, but may need an extra year or so in the minors to iron out the finer points of their game. These players could end up being potential replacements for certain players on the Red Sox right now.
3. Tough Signs: Baseball is the only sport where a guy may slide down the draft boards due to how much money they may command to "buy" them out of a college commitment. Last year, the Red Sox drafted and signed Will Middlebrooks, Anthony Rizzo, David Mailman, Austin Bailey and Drake Britton over slot. Inevitably, some guys they do draft refuse to sign either because they want to get an education or because they think they can go higher in later years, but the money speaks fairly loudly to some draftees. Expect the Sox to continue the trend of shelling out top dollar to some high school players, especially when it comes to the last pick of the first day. In the past two years, the Sox have gone significantly above slot on their last pick of the first day with Will Middlebrooks (5th Round) and Lars Anderson (18th Round).
Finally, there is one player whom the Sox have been linked to for 3 years now: Reese Havens. According to Baseball America's mock draft, Havens would have been drafted over Jacoby Ellsbury with the 23rd pick in 2005 had he been willing to sign for slot money out of high school. Havens is a shortstop currently playing for the University of South Carolina and he really fits the Red Sox mold. He has a good approach at the plate and has some pop for a shortstop while being able to hit for average. Some feel his foot speed will not play at shortstop and he will have to find a new position. Keith Law mentioned in his chat last week that the Sox were keying in on one player and planned to move him to catcher; if Law is referring to Havens, who has the arm to do it, his bat would play up as a catcher. If Havens is still on the board at 30, the Red Sox may take a long, hard look at him, but he hit a walk off home run in the NCAA Regionals, so his stock is on the rise.
Stay tuned for our Sox draft coverage later in the week; on Thursday I will have a report on the players the Red Sox have drafted in the top rounds, and on Friday I will list all drafted players, as well as speculate on the players that may be "tough signs" for the Sox.




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