The Picks - Week 1
Ahhh, football season. Pigskin fans unite as gambling addicts seek their fix through straight wagers, parlays and prop bets. Those of you that know me know I have developed an affinity for gambling over the years. You also know that I've channeled that affinity through sports betting, mostly as it pertains to the NFL. As a result, I've decided to share that love (and knowledge, I hope) with the world for the first time here on BSB. That said, here's our first edition of "The Picks," a weekly feature in which I'll pick all the week's games based on the spreads. Keep in mind that I'm not an expert by any means (nor am I claiming to win one), although my roommate and I did make some serious bank during our sophomore year of college...
Odds from www.sportsbook.com as of 11:00 PM on 9.03.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1.5)
BALTIMORE RAVENS
NEW YORK JETS (-3.0)
MIAMI DOLPHINS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16.5)
HOUSTON TEXANS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3.0)
TENNESSEE TITANS
DETROIT LIONS (-3.0)
ATLANTA FALCONS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
BUFFALO BILLS (-1.0)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.0)
ST. LOUIS RAMS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-7.5)
DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.0)
CLEVELAND BROWNS
CAROLINA PANTHERS
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-9.0)
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
CHICAGO BEARS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5)
DENVER BRONCOS (-1.0)
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Redskins +4.5
Jason Campbell will be a vastly improved quarterback and this is the first game he proves it against a depleted Giants defense. Plus, I still haven't forgiven Eli and the G-Men for what happened in February, so I may pick against them all year out of spite.
Bengals -1.5
Joe Flacco's making his first NFL start and Willis McGahee's still banged up. The Bengals have plenty of injury issues of their own (Palmer's nose, Ocho Cinco's shoulder, Housh's hammy), but come on, it's Joe Flacco.
Jets -3.0
Chad Pennington plays the team that ditched him for the immortal Brett Favre, but Favre has the last laugh thanks to vastly superior personnel on offense, particularly at wideout (Cotchery and Coles).
Patriots -16.5
Brady puts all those rumblings about his injured foot to rest with a strong performance against a crappy, inexperienced KC defense. Good game from Maroney, as well.
Texans +6.5
I don't think they'll win the game, but the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson connection should be in full effect, especially with doubts of Troy Polamalu's health lingering.
Jaguars -3.0
Jacksonville's superior on both sides of the ball and just like the aforementioned Campbell, David Garrard will have a breakout year.
Lions -3.0
The Lions currently boast one of the best 1-2 combos at WR (Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson) in the league, and the Falcons traded away their best corner (DeAngelo Hall).
Seahawks +1.0
Wait, the Bills are favored in their first game of the season? And it's against the Seahawks? Better enjoy it now because that's the last time it'll happen all year. Matt Hasselbeck's down Deion Branch and Bobby Engram, but Nate Burleson will make up for their absence. Vegas is literally giving money away on this one. Let's make this my lock of the week.
Saints -3.0
Saints edge out the Bucs in a high-scoring affair thanks to a big day from Brees (300+ yards and at least 2 TDs).
Rams +7.5
Typically it's "In Westbrook I trust," but I think Steven Jackson has a bigger game (on the ground, at least) and Torry Holt will top 100 yards and grab a score. Kevin Curtis' absence hurts McNabb a lot here.
Cowboys -6.0
This line started at 3 and has made its way up to 6, meaning people are loading up on the 'Boys, and for good reason. The Browns defense is atrocious and Derek Anderson is still banged up after suffering a concussion in Week 2.
Chargers -9.0
No Steve Smith = no win for the Panthers.
Cardinals -2.5
Who would you rather have as your top 2 receivers: Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin or Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson? 'Nuff said.
Colts -9.5
Even though there's a lot of negative speculation about Peyton and his knee, they could probably cover this spread with Jim Sorgi or Jared Lorenzen starting. Big game from Joseph Addai, as well.
Vikings +2.5
Aaron Rodgers will struggle in his first career NFL start, leaving Packers fans questioning whether it was a good idea for Pack management to virtually run Brett the Jet out of town.
Raiders +3.0
This is my reach pick here; Jay Cutler's down his top receiver in Brandon Marshall, while JaMarcus Russell's primary target (Javon Walker) is coming off his best game of the preseason. I'm seeing a big game from that Darren McFadden guy, too, and not just because he's in my flex spot in my big money league.
Odds from www.sportsbook.com as of 11:00 PM on 9.03.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5)
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1.5)
BALTIMORE RAVENS
NEW YORK JETS (-3.0)
MIAMI DOLPHINS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16.5)
HOUSTON TEXANS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3.0)
TENNESSEE TITANS
DETROIT LIONS (-3.0)
ATLANTA FALCONS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
BUFFALO BILLS (-1.0)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.0)
ST. LOUIS RAMS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-7.5)
DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.0)
CLEVELAND BROWNS
CAROLINA PANTHERS
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-9.0)
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
CHICAGO BEARS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5)
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5)
DENVER BRONCOS (-1.0)
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Redskins +4.5
Jason Campbell will be a vastly improved quarterback and this is the first game he proves it against a depleted Giants defense. Plus, I still haven't forgiven Eli and the G-Men for what happened in February, so I may pick against them all year out of spite.
Bengals -1.5
Joe Flacco's making his first NFL start and Willis McGahee's still banged up. The Bengals have plenty of injury issues of their own (Palmer's nose, Ocho Cinco's shoulder, Housh's hammy), but come on, it's Joe Flacco.
Jets -3.0
Chad Pennington plays the team that ditched him for the immortal Brett Favre, but Favre has the last laugh thanks to vastly superior personnel on offense, particularly at wideout (Cotchery and Coles).
Patriots -16.5
Brady puts all those rumblings about his injured foot to rest with a strong performance against a crappy, inexperienced KC defense. Good game from Maroney, as well.
Texans +6.5
I don't think they'll win the game, but the Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson connection should be in full effect, especially with doubts of Troy Polamalu's health lingering.
Jaguars -3.0
Jacksonville's superior on both sides of the ball and just like the aforementioned Campbell, David Garrard will have a breakout year.
Lions -3.0
The Lions currently boast one of the best 1-2 combos at WR (Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson) in the league, and the Falcons traded away their best corner (DeAngelo Hall).
Seahawks +1.0
Wait, the Bills are favored in their first game of the season? And it's against the Seahawks? Better enjoy it now because that's the last time it'll happen all year. Matt Hasselbeck's down Deion Branch and Bobby Engram, but Nate Burleson will make up for their absence. Vegas is literally giving money away on this one. Let's make this my lock of the week.
Saints -3.0
Saints edge out the Bucs in a high-scoring affair thanks to a big day from Brees (300+ yards and at least 2 TDs).
Rams +7.5
Typically it's "In Westbrook I trust," but I think Steven Jackson has a bigger game (on the ground, at least) and Torry Holt will top 100 yards and grab a score. Kevin Curtis' absence hurts McNabb a lot here.
Cowboys -6.0
This line started at 3 and has made its way up to 6, meaning people are loading up on the 'Boys, and for good reason. The Browns defense is atrocious and Derek Anderson is still banged up after suffering a concussion in Week 2.
Chargers -9.0
No Steve Smith = no win for the Panthers.
Cardinals -2.5
Who would you rather have as your top 2 receivers: Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin or Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson? 'Nuff said.
Colts -9.5
Even though there's a lot of negative speculation about Peyton and his knee, they could probably cover this spread with Jim Sorgi or Jared Lorenzen starting. Big game from Joseph Addai, as well.
Vikings +2.5
Aaron Rodgers will struggle in his first career NFL start, leaving Packers fans questioning whether it was a good idea for Pack management to virtually run Brett the Jet out of town.
Raiders +3.0
This is my reach pick here; Jay Cutler's down his top receiver in Brandon Marshall, while JaMarcus Russell's primary target (Javon Walker) is coming off his best game of the preseason. I'm seeing a big game from that Darren McFadden guy, too, and not just because he's in my flex spot in my big money league.
Comments