UPDATE: It looks like Pap will continue to go year-to-year (at least for this year) as he and the club have agreed to a one-year, $6.25 million deal. It's a record figure for arbitration-eligible relief pitchers.

Pap will likely ride out the one-year deals for the next couple of years and see what kind of crazy money he can command on the open market in a (presumably) better economy. Sometimes, as in this instance, I really hate it when I'm right.

ORIGINAL, 1/19, 10:38 PM:



I was reading my good buddy Rob's blog the other day (if you haven't seen it, check out The Bottom Line for some first rate Sox opinions), and it got me to thinking, "What exactly is the right price for one of the premiere closers in the league, Jonathan Papelbon?" Given the fact that Pap just filed for arbitration (along with Javy Lopez, but really, the phrase "Who gives a shit?" comes to mind when looking at the two side-by-side), this issue hasn't been more pertinent than it is now.

I'm sure you all remember Papelbon talking about the "obligation" he feels to the game of baseball to command the most salary possible some months ago, and as ludicrous as that seemed at the time, it could become as annoyingly likely in the coming weeks and months (especially in light of the recent Youk and Dusty deals).

Breaking down the details, Pap is arbitration eligible this year, as well as each of the next two. He'll be a free agent if no deals are struck between now and then in 2012. Rob Bradford details the reasons why a Papelbon agreement will be more difficult to come to than it was with either Dusty or Youk, and I can think of one more he forgot to mention (likely due to his proximity to the team and its players): his EGO.

In any event, all signs point to Papelbon getting big money. The Bottom Line suggest three years and $18 million; while I like the optimism, unfortunately, I don't see Pap going for it. From Pap's position, it's not long enough or for enough money (although it would save him the trouble of having to go through the arb. process in each of the next three years), and from an organizational standpoint, they don't buy out any of his FA years and could probably go to arbitration in each of the next three years and end up paying about as much. Pap will likely look to K-Rod's (3-year, $37 million) and Mo's (3-year, $45 million) deals as negotiating tools, though with his relative lack of experience compared to those two, it's almost impossible he'll be able to command upwards of $10 mil. annually from the Sox.

In the end, I'm not entirely sure a several-year deal will be worked out this year. If and when they do come to an agreement, I see it being for four years at around $7.5 to $9 mil. annually. Anything over $10 mil. at this point would be unwise.