The Bottom Line interview

I was recently asked to answer five questions for The Bottom Line as part of a roundtable discussion on the Sox. Rob asked some great questions, so here are my answers. Be sure to check TBL the week of February 9th for everybody else's take.

1) What was the best move the Red Sox made this off season? This can include free agent signings, trades, contract extensions and "non-moves" like not overpaying for Teixeira…

I really liked the moves to lock up both Youk and Pedey, but I love the Coco trade to KC for Ramon Ramirez. He's only 27 and could become a mainstay in the bullpen for the next 6 to 8 years. He averaged roughly one K per inning (70 Ks in 71.2 innings) and who's to say he might not get better?
 
2) Which Free Agent signing will have the most impact in 2009: Smoltz, Penny, Saito, Kotsay, Baldelli?
Sticking with the bullpen theme here, I see Saito having a huge year in Boston. He'll be 39 when the season starts and the odds are stacked against him as he's coming back from injury, but he's been just about the most dominant NL closer in the past three years with the Dodgers. Depending on the role the Sox decide to use him in (have to think it would be late inning work at this point), he could really wow people here.
 
3) Who will improve the most on their 2008 season?
I'm playing it safe on this one (I hope!) and going with the Large Father, Mr. David Ortiz. Papi posted what was easily his most disappointing line in his six years in Boston (.264 BA, .369 OBP, .507 SLG, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 74 R in 109 games) and also appeared in less games than in any other point in the past seven years. This was due in large part, obviously, to struggles coming back from a knee injury and all the craziness surrounding the Manny situation (maybe you've heard of him...), so without all the distractions, I'm hoping for big things from the dynamic DH. That is if he gets comfortable with Youk batting behind him instead of old #24.

Dark horse candidate would have to be Clay Buchholz (2-9, 6.75 ERA, 72 K, 41 BB, 1.76 WHIP in 76 IP), who really has nowhere to go but up after 16 mostly ugly outings last year. Only question is how much time - if any - he'll see with the big boys given the surplus of pitching they currently have.
 
4) Jon Lester filled in for Josh Beckett as the "ace" last season. Who will be the ace of the staff in 2009?
Beckett reclaims ace status. He's got an option year for $12 million coming coming up and will want to get his hands on some of that Sabathia-esque money when it comes time to negotiate his next contract. The signings of Smoltz and Penny, as well as all the talk of how huge Lester and Matsuzaka (in spite of the several hundred walks he issued) were last year, should serve to motivate Beckett to work hard to have a solid season. Plus, if you look at his year-by-year breakdown, for whatever reason, he's always better in odd years, so he's due (if you believe in that kind of thing...).
 
5) Early prediction time… Who will win the AL East this year?
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rays repeat. They lost a couple key members of last year's ridiculous bullpen, but they got significantly stronger in the middle of the lineup with the addition of Pat Burrell. The corps of the team remains intact, and I'm still not convinced the Yankees are better rotation-wise one through five (but maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part). It'll be a three-team race once again, but I still see Joe Maddon's crew as the team to beat.

 
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